Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/766
Title: Scale-free distribution of avian influenza outbreaks
Authors: Small, Michael
Walker, David M.
Tse, C. K. Michael
Subjects: Birds
Disease control
Mathematical models
Population dynamics
Issue Date: 2-Nov-2007
Publisher: American Physical Society
Source: Physical review letters, 2 Nov. 2007, v. 99, 188702, p. 1-4.
Abstract: Using global case data for the period from 25 November 2003 to 10 March 2007, we construct a network of plausible transmission pathways for the spread of avian influenza among domestic and wild birds. The network structure we obtain is complex and exhibits scale-free (although not necessarily smallworld) properties. Communities within this network are connected with a distribution of links with infinite variance. Hence, the disease transmission model does not exhibit a threshold and so the infection will continue to propagate even with very low transmissibility. Consequentially, eradication with methods applicable to locally homogeneous populations is not possible. Any control measure needs to focus explicitly on the hubs within this network structure.
Rights: Copyright 2007 by the American Physical Society.
Type: Journal/Magazine Article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/766
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.188702
ISSN: 0031-9007
Appears in Collections:EIE Journal/Magazine Articles

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