Analyze the risks of biological invasion : an agent based simulation model for introducing non-native oysters in Chesapeake Bay, USA

Abstract

Introducing non-native species can create serious environmental risks, such as changing the attributes of ecosystem, displacing the native species, clogging the natural waterways and channels. Careful examination of the possible consequences before implementation can prevent the adverse consequences of invasive species.

However, policy analysis for such an action is often difficult, due to the complexity of the marine environment, and the interactions among the species therein. This paper presents a spatial-explicit agent-based simulation model for analyzing the environmental risks of introducing non-native species, Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis). It is considered to be introduced into the Chesapeake Bay, USA, where there is a native Oyster species (Eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica) with declining population. The simulation result indicates that the non-native species will likely displace the native species, but this can be controlled by setting up a different harvest plan, and the location and the number of initial spat introduced.