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Title: An empirical study of forecast combination in tourism
Authors: Song, Haiyan
Witt, Stephen F.
Wong, Kevin K. F.
Wu, Doris C.
Subjects: Forecast combination
Forecasting accuracy
Tourism demand
Issue Date: 1-Feb-2009
Publisher: Published by Sage on behalf of International Council on Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional Education
Source: Journal of hospitality & tourism research, 1 Feb. 2009, v. 33, no. 1, p. 3-29.
Abstract: The performance of forecast combination techniques is explored at different time horizons in the context of tourism demand forecasting. Statistical comparisons between the combination and single-model forecasts show that the combined forecasts are significantly more accurate than the average single-model forecasts across all forecasting horizons and for all combination methods. This provides a strong recommendation for forecast combination in tourism. In addition, the empirical results indicate that forecast accuracy does not improve as the number of models included in the combination forecasts increases. It also appears that combining forecasts may be more beneficial for longer-term forecasting.
Rights: © 2009 International Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education
Type: Journal/Magazine Article
DOI: 10.1177/1096348008321366
ISSN: 1096-3480 (print)
1557-7554 (online)
Appears in Collections:SHTM Journal/Magazine Articles

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