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Title: Tourism demand modelling and forecasting : a review of recent research
Authors: Song, Haiyan
Li, Gang
Subjects: Tourism demand
Issue Date: Apr-2008
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
Source: Tourism management, Apr. 2008, v. 29, no. 2, p. 203-220.
Abstract: This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting.
Rights: Tourism Management © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. The journal web site is located at
Type: Journal/Magazine Article
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016
ISSN: 0261-5177
Appears in Collections:SHTM Journal/Magazine Articles

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