http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1773 Search the Channel search http://repository.lib.polyu.edu.hk/jspui/simple-search http://hdl.handle.net/10397/4593 Title: Global financial/economic crisis and tourist arrival forecasts for Hong Kong<br/><br/>Authors: Song, Haiyan; Lin, Shanshan; Zhang, Xinyan; Gao, Zixuan<br/><br/>Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the global financial/economic crisis on the demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of 10 major source markets for the period 2009–2012. To capture the influence of this crisis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) is used to calculate the demand elasticities, and four scenarios (ranging from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic) are created to examine the possible impacts of changes in source market income levels and the price of tourism on the demand for Hong Kong tourism in these markets. The demand elasticities reveal that the economic conditions in the source markets are the most significant determinants of demand for Hong Kong tourism. In the most pessimistic scenario, total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 27.6 million in 2009 and 26.0 million in 2012, whereas in the most optimistic scenario, these numbers are 30.7 million in 2009 and 33 million in 2012. In all of the scenarios, tourist arrivals from the long-haul markets are expected to suffer more losses relative to the short-haul markets during the 2009–2012 forecasting period. The forecasts also indicate that the market shares of the source markets will change slightly over this period, with Mainland China, Taiwan and Japan constituting the dominant markets for Hong Kong tourism.<br/><br/>Description: DOI: 10.1080/10941661003687431 http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1774 Title: Game-theoretic study of the dynamics of tourism supply chains for package holidays under quantity competition<br/><br/>Authors: Huang, George Q.; Chen, Wanli; Song, Haiyan; Zhang, Xinyan<br/><br/>Abstract: This paper considers a tourism supply chain (TSC) for package holidays. Three sectors are included: a theme park, hotel and accommodation providers and tour operators. The different sectors are coordinated with each other, while enterprises within each compete in order to optimize their own objectives. This research studies the impacts of competitive and cooperative relationships between the enterprises on the dynamics of the TSC under quantity competition. Simultaneous non-cooperative games are used to model the competitive quantity decisions between enterprises in the same sector. A sequential game is established between the three sectors to coordinate tourist numbers. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to examine the dynamics of the supply chain in terms of several operating parameters, such as operating costs, sector size and product differentiation. Among the key findings are that member enterprises in one sector can benefit from intensified competition in a complementary sector in the same layer and that the upstream enterprises in the tourism supply chain prefer package holiday product differentiation strategies.